Comments on: The Tidal Wave Of Rising GPU TAM Raises All Boats https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/12/07/the-tidal-wave-of-rising-gpu-tam-raises-all-boats/ In-depth coverage of high-end computing at large enterprises, supercomputing centers, hyperscale data centers, and public clouds. Fri, 22 Dec 2023 21:39:56 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 By: Mike Bruzzone https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/12/07/the-tidal-wave-of-rising-gpu-tam-raises-all-boats/#comment-217612 Fri, 15 Dec 2023 18:50:42 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=143374#comment-217612 In reply to Timothy Prickett Morgan.

Tim, then we both came to the same conclusion 54% cost and 46% margin. I began with a total revenue total cost assessment for RTX cards on my quarterly channel supply data; risk, ramp, peak, run down, run end which seems precise for Nvidia and AIB offerings.

I relied on a set card price so said MSRP to determine marginal cost. I do have change in actual quarterly retail price recorded by PC Builder and HUB so I could further refine in particular on RDNA ll and Ampere 2023 production tails. RDNA ll run end card sale price confirms AIB card cost so I had less incentive to do the full model you could see AMD AIB card cost at run end price.

The channel ramp data seeking change in quantity and the production metric over 5 quarters is 15.5%, 19.6%, 32.8%, 20.4%, 11.5% which gives approximately GPU and/or dGPU + kit component price for a card at MSRP revealing MC = MR = P at the last unit of production. Said last unit of ‘card’ production is very near my dGPU component cost per mm2 from TSMC to AMD and Nvidia on channel on financial data so the dGPU kit price is revealed.

I looked into this on all the gamer whin about price gouging and it was clear entering 2023 AMD and Nvidia moved from 3rd degree to 1st degree MSRPs which the production chain lead all through 2022 rejecting 3rd degree MSRPs on application competitive pricing.

I then took this production aim albeit for cards and there are also price supports that lift consumer card margins on premium features and applied that cost : price / margin framework to systems. I started with one 8 GPU DGX and rejected the traditional Intel CPU 20% value rule and also rejected dGPU subsystem at 30%. The more I worked the whole system model the more it appeared the production chain had agreed on 56% cost and 46% margin. AND for cards plus a bit more margin for top shelf products supporting a premium feature set subsequently pulling total category margin up and or subsidizing mid shelf price reductions.

While I stared with cards and applied that framework to systems it appears to me this was the square deal the production chain demanded minimally 46% margin.

mb

]]> By: Timothy Prickett Morgan https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/12/07/the-tidal-wave-of-rising-gpu-tam-raises-all-boats/#comment-217524 Wed, 13 Dec 2023 18:35:06 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=143374#comment-217524 In reply to Mike Bruzzone.

No, I did my own math on the cost of a clone of a DGX and what I think the HGX compute complex is.

]]> By: Mike Bruzzone https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/12/07/the-tidal-wave-of-rising-gpu-tam-raises-all-boats/#comment-217523 Wed, 13 Dec 2023 18:24:58 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=143374#comment-217523 “If you do the math backwards and use a ratio that the GPU cost of an AI server is around 53 percent of the overall price”, on my data from May of this year. Also cited in my Nvidia q3 on channel on financial. Anyone else touting this would be a confirmation or a copy? Only $50 B units? Volumes are unreported? mb

]]> By: HuMo https://www.nextplatform.com/2023/12/07/the-tidal-wave-of-rising-gpu-tam-raises-all-boats/#comment-217323 Fri, 08 Dec 2023 09:58:15 +0000 https://www.nextplatform.com/?p=143374#comment-217323 I think I’ve got it: 8^b

⟨φ(deuterium)| f(fission) |ψ(tritium)⟩ → neutrinos + ⟨φ(economic)| g(fusion) |ψ(pressure)⟩ = ‖market critical mass‖²

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